millennium

[holist <holist@elender.hu>]

Can some kind person supporting the seemingly predominant view here on
cypherpunks that the Y2K problem is not going to cause more than minor
inconvenience provide a few pointers to supporting arguments, assessments?
Info that included an assessment of what is going to happen on the more
bizarre fringes of the world such as here in Hungary, the Ukraine or Russia
(my major worry vis-a-vis Y2K being Ukrainian and Russian nuclear
powerstations).

I received a post from nettime, a 'rather academic' discussion list in
Holland, wherein it was claimed that several billion ROM chips built into
appliances of all kinds were subject to year 2000 failure and malfunction.
Is there any substance to this claim?

Here in beautiful Hungary, I heard a person on radio whose credentials and
cogent argument (a rare occasion on Hungarian radio) both suggested he knew
what he was talking about say that an estimated 20 to 80% (!!) of hospital
equipment (x-rays, other diagnostic devices, obstetric devices, life
support systems) would irreversably fail, while a proportion of the rest
may require repair. The healthcare system (not only here but I suppose in
much of Eastern Europe as well as ex-communist Asia) is undersupplied to
such an extent with euipment that the only route available to them is
really keeping fingers crossed. I have been unable to obtain information
about control systems of the power grid and the telecommunications systems,
but I would not be surprised if power stations, distribution facilities,
oil pipelines, the gas network and substantial parts of the telephone
networks used some hardware or software that was not compliant. I know for
a fact that the information systems and networks of practically all large
public and commercial organisations are anything but uniform, cobbled under
constant pressure with littel cash to spend, largely by rather incompetent
people - personal acquaintances who work for the computer department of
social security predict with full certainty that their netowrk will fail
entirely... lucky they are still keeping paper copies of everything as
well.  But everyone on cypherpunks is bored shitless of this Y2K crap...
it looks to me like the minor glitch scenario may work in the States etc.,
but we may be hard hit.
explain, please,

holist